Something Stinks In St. Louis
Kevin Bryant
In
July of 1980, Ronald Reagan polled behind Jimmy Carter. Many at that point
thought Carter was shoe-in for reelection. Over the period of August – October,
Reagan steam rolled him. Roll forward to July, 2012, in Missouri John Bruner and
Sarah Steeleman were in a virtual tie for the republican nomination to challenge
Claire MacCaskill for the United States senate. Each polling in the high 30’s to
low 40’s with Congressman Todd Akin bringing up the rear somewhere around 12 –
15%. In three weeks time, Todd Akin goes from dead last and out of contention to
soundly defeating both Steeleman and Bruner. Last time I checked, Todd Akin
isn’t even close to being in the same league as Ronald Reagan.
Claire MacCaskill at the time was polling almost 10 point behind
both Bruner and Steeleman and was in within the margin of error against
Akin. Now Aunt Claire is ahead of and
pulling away from Todd Akin. What I and so many others here in Missouri would
like to know is what really happened in those three weeks leading up to that
primary.
What
we know: Todd Akin is a congressman from the St. Louis area but is almost a
complete unknown in the rest of the state. Claire MacCaskill was able to defeat
Jim Talent for her senate seat because of an extremely strong showing in the St.
Louis area, where she received almost 80% of the vote. Jim Talent took the rest
of the state. John Bruner and Sarah Steeleman split almost every section of the
state except for St. Louis. Steeleman and Bruner finished with less than 3000
votes separating them but Todd Akin managed to defeat them both by almost 10,000
votes though he finished last in 80% of Missouri’s counties. Todd Akin was
outspent outside of the St. Louis metro almost 40 to 1 by the combination of
Bruner and Steeleman. Todd Akin literally had no money to spend outside of the
St. Louis area.
What
we all saw: The MacCaskill campaign shot multiple radio and TV ads opposing all
three candidates though hardly any of those against Steeleman or Bruner ever
made it on the air. In fact, 95% of her advertisement opposing Steeleman and
Bruner was pulled from the Kansas City & Springfield areas by the third week
of June, 7 weeks before the election and we got bombarded with “Don’t Vote Todd
Akin” ads.
Questions:
1) How does someone who is virtually unknown outside of St. Louis
manage to gain 25 percentage points in 21 days spending almost no money and
making less than 5 appearances outside of St. Louis.?
2) How did Claire MacCaskill know to keep on running ads against Todd
Akin and to stop running them against the two frontrunners?
Just
two weeks ago (by the time you read this), Todd Akin, a very seasoned
politician, goes on television and makes a speaking error of such enormous
proportion that it would actually blow the minds of people if that size mistake
was made by someone running for the position of local dogcatcher. No politician outside of Joe Biden is THAT
dumb.
Todd
Akin now has no money, very little in state support, no out of state support, no
backing from the RNC, no vote of confidence from the Romney-Ryan campaign, two
candidates who can both raise money and defeat MacCaskill waiting in the wings
and he refuses to step down as the party’s candidate for the U.S. senate. Every
republican power player in the state has requested he step aside. Only
MacCaskill and state democrats still support him staying in and he won’t get out
of the race.
Question:
3) You’re beat and you know you’re beat. Why stay in a race you know
you can’t win and by staying, you prevent 2 others who are very capable of
winning from actually defeating Claire MacCaskill and blocking the republicans
from taking back the senate?
Is
it just me or can you too smell the political stench coming from St.
Louis?