Monday, January 11, 2010

Self Inflicted Wounds

Self Inflicted Wounds
Kevin Bryant

2010. Arguably the most important election year that any of will ever witness during our time on this earth. With an ultra leftist in the White House and Moderate Democrats being a thing of the past, one would think with all the chaos in congress and a majority of Americans disapproving of how the congress and this administration is performing, Republicans would be a shoe-in to win well over 70% of the seats up for grabs this year.

Democrats have no record that they can run on. They have quadrupled the debt, demonstrated blatant disregard for the constitution, ignored the people they were elected to represent, lied, stolen money from our children and grand children, bribed members of congress, used our tax dollars to settle old debts, refused to face their constituents, finished wrecking everything they came into office swearing they would fix and generally making the United States the butt of every politic joke around the globe.

With Democrats leaving the door as wide open as this for a Republican landslide, one would think it would be easy. Sadly, a majority of Republicans shot themselves and their own party in the foot for the past 10 years when they too took bribes in the name of earmarks and voted for TARP, raised the national debt and gave only token resistance to almost everything involving more government intrusion into our lives except Healthcare Reform. You know you are in trouble when you are looking to RINO’s like McCain & Graham for leadership and guidance.

Roughly 30 to 35% of the country is liberal by political standards. These people are not going to vote for anyone who doesn’t have a ( D ) beside their name. 20 to 25% of the country is not going to vote for anyone except those with an ( R ) beside their name. This leaves approximately 45% of voters out there who look at both parties and realize it’s a lose – lose situation no matter who they vote for.

The real problem for the 2010 election is that in many races, there are going to be three viable candidates. On one side you will have the Liberal Democrat (remember, moderate democrats do not exist in today’s world), the Republican nominee who is running with a tarnished party brand and then there is going to be the 3rd party Conservative – Constitutionalist, who does not have funding close to that of the other two candidates. The Liberal Democrat is going to automatically get 30% of the vote simply for being a Liberal Democrat. The Tarnished Republican is going to get about 20% of the hardcore Republican or nothing at all votes. 50% of the votes remain up for grabs. For ease of having to think too hard, let us imagine that there exactly 100,000 voters for each seat up for grabs.

The Democrat has 33,300 votes in his back pocket. The Republican has 20,000 votes in her back pocket. That leaves 46,700 votes to be split three ways. Let us say that the 3rd party Conservative has won the heart of 26,000 of the remaining voters because none of them can stand either party yet.

If the Republican party had not spent the last 10 years shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly, there would be no need for a 3rd party candidate because the Republican would have all their base or 25,000 votes PLUS all of the 3rd party votes or 26,000 for a total of 51,000 votes. More than an unbeatable total regardless how the remaining 15,700 votes go. Sadly though, Republicans have let down their conservative base for far too long making the 3rd party conservative candidate a real necessity.

With only 20,700 votes remaining, the Tarnished Republican trails the Liberal Democrat by 13,300 votes. She would need over 82% or 17,000 of the 20,700 votes to defeat the Liberal Democrat if they were to get all the remaining votes between them. The 3RD Party Conservative trails the Liberal Democrat by 7300 votes so that person would need just over 68 % or 14,000 votes to defeat the Liberal Democrat if they split the remaining vote just between them.

If there is anyone out there that does not believe the scenario I just laid out is not possible, just look back at New York’s 23rd district race of 2009.


cary said...

I really don't agree with this article based on the most recent findings of the Rasmussen Poll
which tend to show that far more people intend to vote for a Republican Candidate in Congress than a Democrat

Normally I agree with you Kevin, and I just hope you are wrong on this one, but only time will tell

cary said...

Kevin said...


If there are only two candidates to choose from, then my article is mute and does not apply. However, if a third party concervative enters the race, then I stand by what I wrote.

I too hope that I am wrong.

barb p said...

And my God, how did we get here? !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kevin said...

Barb, GOOD QUESTION. When you find the answer, please share.